Impact of SARS-CoV-2 viral load and duration of symptoms before hospital admission on the mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Purpose: Assess the impact of viral load estimated by cycle threshold (Ct) of reverse transcription real time-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) and the days from symptoms onset on mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID19.

Methods: Retrospective observational study of 782 patients with a positive rRT-PCR from a nasopharyngeal swab was performed within the first 24 h from admission. Demographic data, clinical manifestations and laboratory parameters were collected. Uni- and multivariate analyses were performed to identify factors associated with mortality at 60 days.

Results: Ct was divided into three groups and the mortality rate decreased from 27.3 to 20.7% and 9.8% for Ct values of ≤ 20, 21-25 and > 25, respectively (P = 0.0001). The multivariate analysis identified as predictors of mortality, a Ct value < 20 (OR 3.13, CI 95% 1.38-7.10), between 21-25 (OR 2.47, CI 95% 1.32-4.64) with respect to a Ct value > 25. Days from symptoms onset is a variable associated with mortality as well (DSOA) ≤ 6 (OR 1.86, CI 95% 1.00-3.46), among other factors. Patients requiring hospital admission within 6 DSOA with a Ct value ≤ 25 had the highest mortality rate (28%).

Conclusions: The inclusion of Ct values and DSOA in the characterization of study populations could be a useful tool to evaluate the efficacy of antivirals.