The imminent risk of a fracture-existing worldwide data: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The overall incidence of imminent fracture after a prior fragility fracture was 7.58% in the first year and 11.58% in the first 2 years. Approximately half of re-fractures occurred in the first 2 years after a fragility fracture. Older patients that have suffered from a fragility fracture should be treated promptly, with immediate care and a secondary fracture prevention to prevent the high imminent risk of a fracture.

Introduction: Imminent fractures refer to the fractures that occur within 2 years of an initial fracture. It is well known that the risk of a subsequent fracture is not constant with time and occurs shortly after the initial one. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to present the existing data on imminent fracture worldwide.

Methods: Literature search was conducted in Pubmed, Embase, and Web of Science databases until 26 October 2021 for studies reporting the incidence of imminent osteoporotic fractures among people aged 50 years or older. The overall incidence of imminent fracture was pooled and subgroup analyses of index fracture sites and regions on incidence of imminent fracture were performed, with the 95% confidence interval (CI) being calculated. Percentage of imminent fracture occurring in follow-up period was calculated and pooled by meta-analysis. Hazard ratio (HR) was used to estimate the gender differences on the imminent risk of fracture.

Results: A total of 1446 articles were identified. Nineteen observational studies were eligible for our systematic review, in which 18 were used for quantitative analysis. Pooled overall incidence of imminent fracture in the first year after an osteoporotic fracture was 7.58% (95% CI 5.84 to 9.31%) and cumulative incidence in the first 2 years was 11.58% (95% CI 8.94 to 14.21%). Subgroup analysis showed that in the first 2 years, the pooled incidence in Asia was 7.30% (95% CI 3.42 to 11.18%), whilst incidence in Europe/North America was 13.17% (95% CI 10.14 to 16.20%). In included studies with follow-up period of more than 5 years, pooled imminent fracture percentage in the first 2 years was 47.24% (95% CI 26.18 to 68.30%). Hazard ratio (HR) on gender showed that women had an overall slight increase in risk of imminent fractures (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25).

Conclusion: The incidence of imminent fracture is high globally at 11.58%. Approximately half of all refractures occur in the first 2 years after an index fragility fracture. Older patients that have suffered from a fragility fracture should be treated promptly. Also, immediate care and secondary fracture prevention are necessary to prevent the high imminent risk of a fracture, especially within the first 2 years.