World-wide trends in net survival from pancreatic cancer by morphological sub-type: An analysis of 1,258,329 adults diagnosed in 58 countries during 2000-2014 (CONCORD-3)

Background: Ductal adenocarcinomas and neuroendocrine tumours are the two main morphological sub-types of pancreatic cancer. Using data from CONCORD-3, we examined whether the distribution of morphological sub-types could help explain international variations in pancreatic cancer survival for all morphologies combined. We also examined world-wide survival trends from pancreatic cancer, by morphological sub-type and country.

Methods: We estimated age-standardised one- and five-year net survival by country, calendar period of diagnosis (2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014) and morphological sub-type, using data from 295 population-based cancer registries in 58 countries for 1,258,329 adults (aged 15-99 years) diagnosed with pancreatic cancer during 2000-2014 and followed up until 31 December 2014.

Results: Carcinomas were by far the most common morphological sub-type, comprising 90% or more of all pancreatic tumours in all countries. Neuroendocrine tumours were rare, generally 0-10% of all tumours. During 2010-2014, age-standardised one-year net survival ranged from 10% to 30% for carcinomas, while it was much higher for neuroendocrine tumours (40% to 80%). Age-standardised five-year survival was generally poor (less than 10 %) for carcinomas, but it ranged from 20% to 50% for neuroendocrine tumours.

Conclusions: Survival from pancreatic carcinoma remains poor world-wide and trends showed little improvement during 2000-2014. Despite slight declines in the proportion of carcinomas, they continue to comprise the majority of pancreatic tumours. Increases in survival from neuroendocrine tumours were greater than those for carcinomas, indicating that enhancements in diagnostic techniques and treatments have helped improve survival over time.