Safe reopening of university campuses is possible with COVID-19 vaccination

Matthew Junge; Sheng Li; Samitha Samaranayake; Matthew Zalesak

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0270106

Safe reopening of university campuses is possible with COVID-19 vaccination

PLoS One. 2022 Jul 21;17(7):e0270106. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270106. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Matthew Junge¹, Sheng Li², Samitha Samaranayake³, Matthew Zalesak⁴

Affiliations

¹ Department of Mathematics, Baruch College, New York, New York, United States of America.
² School of Public Health, City University of New York, New York, New York, United States of America.
³ School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America.
⁴ School of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, United States of America.

Abstract

We construct an agent-based SEIR model to simulate COVID-19 spread at a 16000-student mostly non-residential urban university during the Fall 2021 Semester. We find that mRNA vaccine coverage at 100% combined with weekly screening testing of 25% of the campus population make it possible to safely reopen to in-person instruction. Our simulations exhibit a right-skew for total infections over the semester that becomes more pronounced with less vaccine coverage, less vaccine effectiveness and no additional preventative measures. This suggests that high levels of infection are not exceedingly rare with campus social connections the main transmission route. Finally, we find that if vaccine coverage is 100% and vaccine effectiveness is above 80%, then a safe reopening is possible even without facemask use. This models possible future scenarios with high coverage of additional "booster" doses of COVID-19 vaccines.

Publication types

Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19 Vaccines*
COVID-19* / prevention & control
Humans
Universities
Vaccination
Vaccines, Synthetic
mRNA Vaccines

Substances

COVID-19 Vaccines
Vaccines, Synthetic
mRNA Vaccines

Grants and funding

Matthew Junge was partially supported by NSF grants 2028892, and 2115936, grant CMMI-2033580 and US-DOT grant 69A3551747119. Sheng Li was partially supported by the CUNY SPH Dean’s COVID-19 Grant and IRG Multidisciplinary Research Grant. Samitha Saranayake and Matthew Zalesak were partially supported by NSF grant CMMI-2033580 and US-DOT grant 69A3551747119. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. This document is disseminated in the interest of information exchange. The report is funded, partially or entirely, by a grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s University Transportation Centers Program. However, the U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof.