Factors Affecting the Product Life Cycle of Generic Medicines

Background: Product life cycle (PLC) refers to the time ranging from when a product is introduced into the market to when it is taken off the shelves. The PLC management can guarantee product survival and prevent its decline.

Objectives: This study investigated generic antibiotic PLCs and detected factors affecting them in the competitive pharmaceutical market of Iran to improve the PLC management of such drugs.

Methods: To study the PLC of antibiotics, data were collected from 2002 to 2017, and then the PLC curves were analyzed. Accordingly, factors affecting the PLC of antibiotics were illustrated in two sections: all PLC curves and the PLC curves with one sales peak. Using a generalized linear model combined with a machine learning approach, we identified the sales patterns and the effect of the product-related and the competition-related factors on the PLC curves, peak height, and the time to reach peak sales.

Results: According to the findings, 16, 11.87, 13.03, and 59% of the antibiotics had linear, binomial, one-peak, and oscillating sales patterns, respectively. The most crucial factors affecting the PLC shape were the quality, microbial spectrum, dosage forms, number of competitors, and entry arrangement.

Conclusions: This study examined factors affecting the PLC patterns of generic pharmaceutical products. The findings would provide more insights into the generic pharmaceutical market as one of the less-studied markets in many countries.