Spatio-temporal clustering of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in France: A population-based study

Objective: To assess spatial aggregates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) incident cases, using a solid geo-epidemiological statistical method, in France.

Methods: This population-based study (2003-2011) investigated 47.1 million person-years of follow-up (PYFU). Case ascertainment of incident ALS cases was based on multiple sources (ALS referral centers, hospital centres and health insurance data). Neurologists confirmed all ALS diagnoses. Exhaustiveness was estimated through capture-recapture. Aggregates were investigated in four steps: (a) geographical modelling (standardized incidence ratio (SIR) calculation), (b) analysis of the spatial distribution of incidence (Phothoff-Winttinghill's test, Global Moran's Index, Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic, Local Moran's Index), (c) classification of the level of certainty of spatial aggregates (i.e. definite cluster; probable over-incidence area; possible over-incidence area) and (d) evaluation of the robustness of the results.

Results: The standardized incidence of ALS was 2.46/100,000 PYFU (95% CI 2.31-2.63, European population as reference) based on 1199 incident cases. We identified 13 areas of spatial aggregates: one cluster (stable in robustness analysis), five probable over-incidence areas (2 stable in robustness analysis) and seven possible over-incidence areas (including 4 stable areas in robustness analysis). A cluster was identified in the Rhône-Alpes region: 100 observed vs 54.07 expected cases for 2,411,514 PYFU, SIR: 1.85 (95% CI 1.50-2.25).

Conclusion: We report here one of the largest investigations of incidence and spatial aggregation of ALS ever performed in a western country. Using a solid methodology framework for case ascertainment and cluster analysis, we identified 13 areas that warrant further investigation.