Baseline Serum Autoantibody Signatures Predict Recurrence and Toxicity in Melanoma Patients Receiving Adjuvant Immune Checkpoint Blockade

Purpose: Adjuvant immunotherapy produces durable benefit for patients with resected melanoma, but many develop recurrence and/or immune-related adverse events (irAE). We investigated whether baseline serum autoantibody (autoAb) signatures predicted recurrence and severe toxicity in patients treated with adjuvant nivolumab, ipilimumab, or ipilimumab plus nivolumab.

Experimental design: This study included 950 patients: 565 from CheckMate 238 (408 ipilimumab versus 157 nivolumab) and 385 from CheckMate 915 (190 nivolumab versus 195 ipilimumab plus nivolumab). Serum autoAbs were profiled using the HuProt Human Proteome Microarray v4.0 (CDI Laboratories, Mayaguez, PR). Analysis of baseline differentially expressed autoAbs was followed by recurrence and severe toxicity signature building for each regimen, testing of the signatures, and additional independent validation for nivolumab using patients from CheckMate 915.

Results: In the nivolumab independent validation cohort, high recurrence score predicted significantly worse recurrence-free survival [RFS; adjusted HR (aHR), 3.60; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.98-6.55], and outperformed a model composed of clinical variables including PD-L1 expression (P < 0.001). Severe toxicity score was a significant predictor of severe irAEs (aHR, 13.53; 95% CI, 2.59-86.65). In the ipilimumab test cohort, high recurrence score was associated with significantly worse RFS (aHR, 3.21; 95% CI, 1.38-7.45) and severe toxicity score significantly predicted severe irAEs (aHR, 11.04; 95% CI, 3.84-37.25). In the ipilimumab plus nivolumab test cohort, high autoAb recurrence score was associated with significantly worse RFS (aHR, 6.45; 95% CI, 1.48-28.02), and high severe toxicity score was significantly associated with severe irAEs (aHR, 23.44; 95% CI, 4.10-212.50).

Conclusions: Baseline serum autoAb signatures predicted recurrence and severe toxicity in patients treated with adjuvant immunotherapy. Prospective testing of the signatures that include datasets with longer follow-up and rare but more severe toxicities will help determine their generalizability and potential clinical utility. See related commentary by Hassel and Luke, p. 3914.