Importance: Childhood lipid levels have been associated with adult subclinical atherosclerosis; however, life-course lipid trajectories and their associations with cardiovascular disease risk are poorly characterized.
Objectives: To examine the associations of lipid levels at different ages and discrete lipid trajectory patterns from childhood to adulthood with subclinical atherosclerosis in midlife.
Design, setting, and participants: This cohort study used data from the Bogalusa Heart Study, a prospective, population-based cohort study conducted in a semirural, biracial community in Bogalusa, Louisiana, with follow-up from 1973 to 2016 (median follow-up, 36.8 years). Participants had 4 to 16 repeated measurements of lipids, including total cholesterol (TC), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides (TG), from childhood to midlife and adult measurement of carotid intima-media thickness (IMT). Statistical analyses were conducted from July 1 to December 31, 2021.
Exposures: Age-specific lipid levels were estimated, and lipid trajectory patterns were identified using latent mixture modeling.
Main outcomes and measures: Subclinical atherosclerosis measured by carotid IMT.
Results: The study evaluated 1201 adults (mean [SD] age, 45.7 [6.8] years; 691 [57.5%] women and 510 [42.5%] men; 392 Black [32.6%] and 809 White [67.4%] individuals). Levels of all lipids at each age from 5 to 45 years were significantly associated with adult IMT. The magnitude of associations generally increased with age, and non-HDL-C (age 5 y: β, 0.040; 95% CI, 0.025-0.055; age 45 y, β, 0.049; 95% CI, 0.026-0.072) and LDL-C (age 5 y: β, 0.039; 95% CI, 0.024-0.054; age 45 y, β, 0.043; 95% CI, 0.023-0.063) showed the strongest associations. After adjusting for race, sex, and other cardiovascular risk factors, mean IMT values were significantly higher in the low-slow increase, low-rapid increase, and high-stable trajectory groups for TC (eg, high-stable group: mean difference, 0.152 mm; 95% CI, 0.059-0.244 mm), the low-slow increase, low-rapid increase, moderate-stable, and high-stable trajectory groups for non-HDL-C (eg, low-slow increase group: mean difference, 0.048 mm; 95% CI, 0.012-0.085 mm) and LDL-C (eg, low-rapid increase group: mean difference, 0.104 mm; 95% CI, 0.056-0.151 mm) and the low-rapid increase and moderate-stable trajectory groups for TG (eg, moderate-stable group: mean difference, 0.071 mm; 95% CI, 0.019-0.122 mm) vs the corresponding low-stable trajectory groups. These associations were slightly attenuated after further adjustment for lipid levels at baseline or follow-up. There were no significant differences in mean IMT among HDL-C trajectory groups.
Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study, discrete life-course lipid trajectories were associated with the development of atherosclerosis in midlife. The findings emphasize the importance of maintaining optimal lipid levels across the lifespan.