Construction of survival prediction model for elderly esophageal cancer

Background: The purpose of this study was to analyze the clinical characteristics and prognosis of EPEC and to construct a prediction model based on the SEER database.

Methods: All EPECs from the SEER database were retrospectively analyzed. A comprehensive and practical nomogram that predicts the overall survival (OS) of EPEC was constructed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to explore the clinical factors influencing the prognosis of EPEC, and finally, the 1 -, 3 - and 5-year OS were predicted by establishing the nomogram. The discriminant and predictive ability of the nomogram was evaluated by consistency index (C-index), calibration plot, area under the curve (AUC), and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical value of the nomogram.

Results: A total of 3478 patients diagnosed with EPEC were extracted from the SEER database, and the data were randomly divided into the training group (n=2436) and the validation group (n=1402). T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, age, grade, and tumor size were independent risk factors for 1 -, 3 - and 5-year OS of EPEC (P< 0.05), and these factors were used to construct the nomogram prediction mode. The C-index of the validation and training cohorts was 0.718 and 0.739, respectively, which were higher than those of the TNM stage system. The AUC values of the nomogram used to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS were 0.751, 0.744, and 0.786 in the validation cohorts (0.761, 0.777, 0.787 in the training cohorts), respectively. The calibration curve of 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS showed that the prediction of the nomogram was in good agreement with the actual observation. The nomogram exhibited higher clinical utility after evaluation with the 1-, 2-, and 3-year DCA compared with the AJCC stage system.

Conclusions: This study shows that the nomogram prediction model for EPEC based on the SEER database has high accuracy and its prediction performance is significantly better than the TNM staging system, which can accurately and individually predict the OS of patients and help clinicians to formulate more accurate and personalized treatment plans.