Multiparametric identification of subclinical atrial fibrillation after an embolic stroke of undetermined source

Background: Subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) may represent a cause of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) and its detection has important implications for secondary prevention with anticoagulation. Indications to implantable cardiac monitors (ICM) include SCAF detection. The aims of this study were to (1) evaluate the frequency of ICM-detected SCAF; (2) determine predictors of SCAF; and (3) identify patients who would benefit most from ICM implantation.

Methods: Between February 2017 and November 2020, all consecutive patients referred for ICM implantation after a diagnosis of ESUS and without previous history of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter were included in this study. SCAF was diagnosed if the ICM electrogram demonstrated an episode of irregularly irregular rhythm without distinct P waves lasting > 2 min.

Results: We enrolled 109 patients (age 66, SD = 13 years; 36% females). During a median follow-up of 19.2 (IQR 11.0-27.5) months, SCAF episodes were detected in 36 (33%) patients. Only abnormal P wave terminal force in lead V1, left atrial end-systolic indexed volume > 34 ml/m², and BMI > 25 kg/m² were independently associated with an increased risk of SCAF (HR 2.44, 95% CI 1.14-5.21, p = 0.021; HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.11-5.13, p = 0.026; and HR 2.64, 95% CI 1.06-6.49, p = 0.036 respectively). The ROC curve showed that the presence of all three parameters had the best accuracy (74%) to predict SCAF detection (sensitivity 39%, specificity 91%).

Conclusion: A multiparametric evaluation has the best accuracy to predict SCAF in ESUS patients and may help identifying those who would benefit most from ICM.