¹⁸F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Parameters can Predict Long-Term Outcome Following Trimodality Treatment for Oesophageal Cancer

Aims: ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (¹⁸FDG-PET/CT) is routinely used for the pre-treatment staging of oesophageal or gastro-oesophageal junction cancers (EGEJC). The aim of this study was to identify objective ¹⁸FDG-PET/CT-derived parameters that can aid in predicting the patterns of recurrence and prognostication in patients with EGEJC.

Patients and methods: EGEJC patients referred for consideration of preoperative chemoradiation therapy were identified and clinicopathological data were collected. ¹⁸FDG-PET/CT imaging data were reviewed and correlated with treatment outcomes. Maximum standardised uptake value (SUV_max), metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis were assessed and association with recurrence-free survival (RFS), locoregional recurrence-free survival (LR-RFS), oesophageal cancer-specific survival (ECSS) and overall survival were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, as well as Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier models.

Results: In total, 191 EGEJC patients completed trimodality treatment and 164 with ¹⁸FDG-PET/CT data were included in this analysis. At the time of analysis, 15 (9.1%), 70 (42.7%) and two (1.2%) patients were noted to have locoregional, distant and both locoregional and distant metastases, respectively. The median RFS was 30 months (9.6-50.4) and the 5-year RFS was 31.1%. The 5-year overall survival and ECSS were both noted to be 34.8%. Pre-treatment MTV₂₅ > 28.5 cm³ (P = 0.029), MTV₄₀ > 12.4 cm³ (P = 0.018) and MTV₅₀ > 10.2 cm³ (P = 0.005) predicted for worse LR-RFS, ECSS and overall survival for MTV definition of voxels ≥25%, 40% and 50% of SUV_max.

Conclusion: ¹⁸FDG-PET/CT parameters MTV and total lesion glycolysis are useful prognostic tools to predict for LR-RFS, ECSS and overall survival in EGEJC. MTV had the highest accuracy in predicting clinical outcomes. The volume cut-off points we identified for different MTV thresholds predicted outcomes with significant accuracy and may potentially be used for decision making in clinical practice.