Machine learning prediction model for post- hepatectomy liver failure in hepatocellular carcinoma: A multicenter study

Introduction: Post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) is one of the most serious complications and causes of death in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after hepatectomy. This study aimed to develop a novel machine learning (ML) model based on the light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) algorithm for predicting PHLF.

Methods: A total of 875 patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy were randomized into a training cohort (n=612), a validation cohort (n=88), and a testing cohort (n=175). Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) was performed to determine the importance of individual variables. By combining these independent risk factors, an ML model for predicting PHLF was established. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and decision curve analyses (DCA) were used to evaluate the accuracy of the ML model and compare it to that of other noninvasive models.

Results: The AUCs of the ML model for predicting PHLF in the training cohort, validation cohort, and testing cohort were 0.944, 0.870, and 0.822, respectively. The ML model had a higher AUC for predicting PHLF than did other non-invasive models. The ML model for predicting PHLF was found to be more valuable than other noninvasive models.

Conclusion: A novel ML model for the prediction of PHLF using common clinical parameters was constructed and validated. The novel ML model performed better than did existing noninvasive models for the prediction of PHLF.