Long-Term Outcomes of Patients with Stroke Predicted by Clinicians to have no Chance of Meaningful Recovery: A Japanese Cohort Study

Background: Little is known about the natural history of comatose patients with brain injury, as in many countries most of these patients die in the context of withdrawal of life-sustaining therapies (WLSTs). The accuracy of predicting recovery that is used to guide goals-of-care decisions is uncertain. We examined long-term outcomes of patients with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke predicted by experienced clinicians to have no chance of meaningful recovery in Japan, where WLST in patients with isolated neurological disease is uncommon.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of all patients admitted with acute ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, or nontraumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage between January 2018 and December 2020 to a neurocritical care unit at Toda Medical Group Asaka Medical Center in Saitama, Japan. We screened for patients who were predicted by the attending physician on postinjury day 1-4 to have no chance of meaningful recovery. Primary outcome measures were disposition at hospital discharge and the ability to follow commands and functional outcomes measured by the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOS-E), which was assessed 6 months after injury.

Results: From 860 screened patients, we identified 40 patients (14 with acute ischemic stroke, 19 with intracerebral hemorrhage, and 7 with subarachnoid hemorrhage) who were predicted to have no chance of meaningful recovery. Median age was 77 years (interquartile range 64-85), 53% (n = 21) were women, and 80% (n = 32) had no functional deficits prior to hospitalization. Six months after injury, 17 patients were dead, 14 lived in a long-term care hospital, 3 lived at home, 2 lived in a rehabilitation center, and 2 lived in a nursing home. Three patients reliably followed commands, two were in a vegetative state (GOS-E 2), four fully depended on others and required constant assistance (GOS-E 3), one could be left alone independently for 8 h per day but remained dependent (GOS-E 4), and one was independent and able to return to work-like activities (GOS-E 5).

Conclusions: In the absence of WLST, almost half of the patients predicted shortly after the injury to have no chance of meaningful recovery were dead 6 months after the injury. A small minority of patients had good functional recovery, highlighting the need for more accurate neurological prognostication.