Antral follicle count measured at down-regulation as predictor of ovarian response and cumulative live birth: single center analysis including 2731 long agonist IVF cycles

Objective: Evaluate antral follicle count measured after pituitary suppression (AFCaps) with a GnRH agonist as predictor of ovarian response and cumulative live birth (CLB).

Methods: This study is a large cohort analysis of retrospective data between January 2011 and September 2020 in a tertiary-care university hospital. All first initiated IVF/ICSI cycles in women under 43 years of age for whom AFCaps was registered in our database were included. To evaluate CLB rates (CLBRs), only finalized cycles were analyzed (at least one live birth and/or all embryos transferred), excluding PGT cycles and severe male factor requiring testicular sperm extraction.

Results: AFCaps showed a good predictive ability in predicting ovarian response to ovarian stimulation. Predicting poor response, AFCaps presented an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC_ROC) of 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.87), for high response prediction, the AUC_ROC was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-0.83).Although AFCaps was statistically higher in patients who achieved at least one live birth (13.6 ± 6.05 vs. 9.79 ± 6.33) and CLBRs per started cycle significantly increase between AFCaps quartiles (15.9%, 36.2%, 45.1% and 52.9%) its ability to predict CLBR was modest, with an AUC_ROC of 0.67 (95% CI 0.65-0.69).

Conclusions: Women undergoing their first IVF/ICSI cycle following a long agonist GnRH protocol can be counseled with AFCaps measurement about their probability of achieving poor/high response. Based on this marker physicians can personalize ovarian stimulation with the aim of optimizing ovarian response and minimizing its risks. However, AFCaps has failed to predict CLB per started IVF cycle as an isolated marker.