Recent estimates and predictions of 5-year survival rate in patients with pancreatic cancer: A model-based period analysis

Background: The 5-year survival rate for pancreatic cancer (PC) is incredibly low, resulting in this often being a fatal disease. Timely and accurate assessment of the survival rate and prognosis of patients with PC is of great significance for the development of new programs for prevention, monitoring, and treatment.

Methods: Period analysis and further stratified analysis were used to determine the 5-year relative survival rate (RSR) of patients with PC from 2002 to 2016 using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) project database of the National Cancer Institute. Based on this, a generalized linear model was created to predict the survival rate of patients from 2017 to 2021.

Result: During 2002-2016, the 5-year RSR of patients with PC increased from 7.9 to 23.7%. The generalized linear model predicted that the survival rate had increased to 33.9% during 2017-2021, and hence, it was still unacceptably low. The survival rate of patients aged ≥75 years at diagnosis was the lowest among all age groups and was predicted to be only 21.4% during 2017-2021. Notably, the survival rate of patients with differentiation grade III at diagnosis remains particularly low at 7.6%.

Conclusion: The survival rates of patients with PC, although slightly improved, remain extremely low. Timely assessment of the trend of survival rate changes in patients with PC further improves the prognosis of tumor patients and provides data support for relevant medical works to formulate effective tumor prevention and control policies.