Leveraging large, real-world data through machine-learning to increase efficiency in robotic-assisted total knee arthroplasty

Purpose: Increased operative time can be due to patient, surgeon and surgical factors, and may be predicted by machine learning (ML) modeling to potentially improve staff utilization and operating room efficiency. The purposes of our study were to: (1) determine how demographic, surgeon, and surgical factors affected operative times, and (2) train a ML model to estimate operative time for robotic-assisted primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA).

Methods: A retrospective study from 2007 to 2020 was conducted including 300,000 unilateral primary TKA cases. Demographic and surgical variables were evaluated using Wilcoxon/Kruskal-Wallis tests to determine significant factors of operative time as predictors in the ML models. For the ML analysis of robotic-assisted TKAs (> 18,000), two algorithms were used to learn the relationship between selected predictors and operative time. Predictive model performance was subsequently assessed on a test data set comparing predicted and actual operative time. Root mean square error (RMSE), R² and percentage of predictions with an error < 5/10/15 min were computed.

Results: Males, BMI > 40 kg/m² and cemented implants were associated with increased operative time, while age > 65yo, cementless, and high surgeon case volume had reduced operative time. Robotic-assisted TKA increased operative time for low-volume surgeons and decreased operative time for high-volume surgeons. Both ML models provided more accurate operative time predictions than standard time estimates based on surgeon historical averages.

Conclusions: This study demonstrated that greater surgeon case volume, cementless fixation, manual TKA, female, older and non-obese patients reduced operative time. ML prediction of operative time can be more accurate than historical averages, which may lead to optimized operating room utilization.

Level of evidence: III.