Exploring socio-economic externalities of development scenarios. An analysis of EU regions from 2008 to 2016

A great debate around development scenarios has come to define conversations around the economy and the environment, two dimensions that struggle to find a proper balance. In this paper we apply unconditional growth model analyses to a new and unique dataset of European regions between 2008 and 2016 and identify four development scenarios - green growth, green de-growth, black growth and black de-growth - characterized by different relationships between CO₂ emissions and economic growth. We then map European regions across these four scenarios and describe the differences that occurred among regions in terms of socio-economic externalities, mainly competences, investments and well-being. Drawing on our analyses, we contribute to the debate on development scenarios and ecological macro-economics, as well as discuss implications for sustainability policy and research.