Introduction: Early health-technology assessment can support discussing scarce resource allocation among stakeholders. We explored the value of maintaining cognition in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by estimating: (1) the innovation headroom and (2) the potential cost effectiveness of roflumilast treatment in this population.
Methods: The innovation headroom was operationalized by a fictive 100% efficacious treatment effect, and the roflumilast effect on memory word learning test was assumed to be associated with 7% relative risk reduction of dementia onset. Both were compared to Dutch setting usual care using the adapted International Pharmaco-Economic Collaboration on Alzheimer's Disease (IPECAD) open-source model.
Results: The total innovation headroom expressed as net health benefit was 4.2 (95% bootstrap interval: 2.9-5.7) quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The potential cost effectiveness of roflumilast was k€34 per QALY.
Discussion: The innovation headroom in MCI is substantial. Although the potential cost effectiveness of roflumilast treatment is uncertain, further research on its effect on dementia onset is likely valuable.
Keywords: Alzheimer's disease; cost effectiveness; decision-analytic modeling; dementia; economic evaluation; headroom; mild cognitive impairment; roflumilast; value of information.
© 2023 The Authors. Alzheimer's & Dementia published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.