A user-friendly nomogram for predicting radioiodine refractory differentiated thyroid cancer

Background: The diagnosis of radioiodine refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (RAIR-DTC) is primarily based on clinical evolution and iodine uptake over the lesions, which is still time-consuming, thus urging a predictive model for timely RAIR-DTC informing. The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram model for RAIR prediction among DTC patients with distant metastases (DM).

Methods: Data were extracted from the treatment and follow-up databases of Peking Union Medical College Hospital between 2010 and 2021. A total of 124 patients were included and divided into RAIR (n=71) and non-RAIR (n=53) according to 2015 ATA guidelines. All patients underwent total thyroidectomy followed by at least two courses of RAI treatment. Serological markers and various clinical, pathological, genetic status, and imaging factors were integrated into this study. The pre-treatment stimulated Tg and pre- and post-treatment suppressed Tg at the first and second course RAI treatment were defined as s-Tg1, s-Tg2, sup-Tg1, and sup-Tg2, respectively. Δs-Tg denoted s-Tg1/s-Tg2, and Δs-TSH denoted s-TSH1/s-TSH2. Multivariate logistic regression and correlation analysis were utilized to determine the independent predictors of RAIR. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by internal validation and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and benefit in clinical decision-making was assessed using decision curve.

Results: In univariate logistic regression, nine possible risk factors were related to RAIR. Correlation analysis showed four of the above factors associated with RAIR. Through multivariate logistic regression, Δs-Tg/Δs-TSH<1.50 and age upon diagnosis were obtained to develop a convenient nomogram model for predicting RAIR. The model was internally validated and had good predictive efficacy with an AUC of 0.830, specificity of 0.830, and sensitivity of 0.755. The decision curve also showed that if the model is used for clinical decision-making when the probability threshold is between 0.23 and 0.97, the net benefit of patients is markedly higher than that of the TreatAll and TreatNone control groups.By using 1.50 as a cut-off ofΔs-Tg/Δs-TSH, differing biochemical progression among the generally so-called RAIR can be further stratified as meaningfully rapidly or slowly progressive patients (P=0.012).

Conclusions: A convenient user-friendly nomogram model was developed with good predictive efficacy for RAIR. The progression of RAIR can be further stratified as rapidly or slowly progressive by using 1.50 as a cut-off value of Δs-Tg/Δs-TSH.