A new model for predicting the outcome and effectiveness of drug therapy in patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: A multicenter Chinese study

Background: There are a few models for predicting the outcomes of patients with severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) based on single-center data, but clinicians need more reliable models based on multicenter data to predict the clinical outcomes and effectiveness of drug therapy.

Methodology/principal findings: This retrospective multicenter study analyzed data from 377 patients with SFTS, including a modeling group and a validation group. In the modeling group, the presence of neurologic symptoms was a strong predictor of mortality (odds ratio: 168). Based on neurologic symptoms and the joint indices score, which included age, gastrointestinal bleeding, and the SFTS virus viral load, patients were divided into double-positive, single-positive, and double-negative groups, which had mortality rates of 79.3%, 6.8%, and 0%, respectively. Validation using data on 216 cases from two other hospitals yielded similar results. A subgroup analysis revealed that ribavirin had a significant effect on mortality in the single-positive group (P = 0.006), but not in the double-positive or double-negative group. In the single-positive group, prompt antibiotic use was associated with reduced mortality (7.2% vs 47.4%, P < 0.001), even in individuals without significant granulocytopenia and infection, and early prophylaxis was associated with reduced mortality (9.0% vs. 22.8%, P = 0.008). The infected group included SFTS patients with pneumonia or sepsis, while the noninfected group included patients with no signs of infection. The white blood cell count and levels of C-reactive protein and procalcitonin differed significantly between the infection and non-infection groups (P = 0.020, P = 0.011, and P = 0.003, respectively), although the absolute difference in the medians were small.

Conclusions/significance: We developed a simple model to predict mortality in patients with SFTS. Our model may help to evaluate the effectiveness of drugs in these patients. In patients with severe SFTS, ribavirin and antibiotics may reduce mortality.