Single-blind validation of space-based point-source detection and quantification of onshore methane emissions

Evan D Sherwin; Jeffrey S Rutherford; Yuanlei Chen; Sam Aminfard; Eric A Kort; Robert B Jackson; Adam R Brandt

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-30761-2

Single-blind validation of space-based point-source detection and quantification of onshore methane emissions

Sci Rep. 2023 Mar 7;13(1):3836. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-30761-2.

Authors

Evan D Sherwin¹, Jeffrey S Rutherford², Yuanlei Chen², Sam Aminfard³, Eric A Kort⁴, Robert B Jackson⁵, Adam R Brandt²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Energy Science & Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA. [email protected].
² Department of Energy Science & Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.
³ ExxonMobil Upstream Research Company, Spring, TX, 77389, USA.
⁴ Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA.
⁵ Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305, USA.

Abstract

Satellites are increasingly seen as a tool for identifying large greenhouse gas point sources for mitigation, but independent verification of satellite performance is needed for acceptance and use by policy makers and stakeholders. We conduct to our knowledge the first single-blind controlled methane release testing of satellite-based methane emissions detection and quantification, with five independent teams analyzing data from one to five satellites each for this desert-based test. Teams correctly identified 71% of all emissions, ranging from 0.20 [0.19, 0.21] metric tons per hour (t/h) to 7.2 [6.8, 7.6] t/h. Three-quarters (75%) of quantified estimates fell within ± 50% of the metered value, comparable to airplane-based remote sensing technologies. The relatively wide-area Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 satellites detected emissions as low as 1.4 [1.3, 1.5, 95% confidence interval] t/h, while GHGSat's targeted system quantified a 0.20 [0.19, 0.21] t/h emission to within 13%. While the fraction of global methane emissions detectable by satellite remains unknown, we estimate that satellite networks could see 19-89% of total oil and natural gas system emissions detected in a recent survey of a high-emitting region.