The predictive value of the dynamic risk outcome scales (DROS) for recidivism in (forensic) clients with mild intellectual disabilities or borderline intellectual functioning

Background: The dynamic risk outcome scales (DROS) was developed to assess treatment progress of clients with mild intellectual disability or borderline intellectual functioning using dynamic risk factors. We studied the predictive value of the DROS on various classifications and severity levels of recidivism.

Method: Data of 250 forensic clients with intellectual disabilities were linked to recidivism data from the Judicial Information Service in the Netherlands. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses were used to determine the predictive values.

Results: The DROS total score could not significantly predict recidivism. A DROS recidivism subscale predicted general, violent and other recidivism. These predictive values were comparable to those of a Dutch tool validated for risk assessment in the general forensic population.

Conclusions: The DROS recidivism subscale predicted various classifications of recidivism better than chance. At present, the DROS appears to have no added value beyond the HKT-30 for the purpose of risk assessment.