Neoadjuvant and adjuvant chemotherapy share equivalent efficacy in improving overall survival and cancer-specific survival among muscle invasive bladder cancer patients who undergo radical cystectomy: a retrospective cohort study based on SEER database

Background: Although neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) followed by radical cystectomy (RC) have been reported an 6% absolute improvement in 5-year overall survival (OS) for muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), criticism still exists including the delay of surgery and the lack of accurate pathological evidence guidance. Trials have instead focused on adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) but encountered with many difficulties. Convincing data directly compared the treatment efficacy of these 2 strategies are lacking.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to compare the effectiveness of NAC versus AC among patients with T2-4N0-3M0 bladder cancer using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. OS and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were compared using Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival estimators and univariate Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusted for inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). The baseline between groups were compared using standardized mean differences (SMD) approach and kernel density plot. Sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of our results.

Results: In total, 1,620 (38.9%) of all eligible patients (4,169) received NAC and 2,549 (61.1%) received AC. After adjusted for propensity score, all baseline characteristics were balanced with SMD <10%. The IPTW-adjusted survival analyses revealed no significant difference in OS between the 2 groups [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.09, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99-1.20, P=0.1]. Exploratory subgroup analysis indicated longer OS among lymph node-negative patients treated with NAC (AHR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.1-1.4, P=0.001), whereas lymph node-positive patients were in favor of AC (AHR 0.85, 95% CI: 0.72-0.99, P=0.043). This treatment heterogeneity according to lymph node status is associated with better prognosis in Stage II (T2N0) patients receiving NAC (AHR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.1-1.6, P=0.014). Meanwhile, in stage III-IV (T3-T4 and/or N+) diseases, NAC shares similar treatment efficacy to AC (AHR 0.98, 95% CI: 0.87-1.1, P=0.762). The analyses of CSS yielded similar, robust results on the effect of potential unmeasured confounding variables.

Conclusions: Our population-based study suggests that NAC and AC might be interchangeable in MIBC management, especially in patients with Stage III-IV (T3-T4 and/or N+) diseases. However, this conclusion needs further validation from powerful, robust randomized trials.