Development and validation of machine learning-based model for mortality prediction in patients with acute basilar artery occlusion receiving endovascular treatment: multicentric cohort analysis

Background: Predicting mortality in stroke patients using information available before endovascular treatment (EVT) is an essential component for supporting clinical decision-making. Although the mortality rate of acute basilar artery occlusion (ABAO) after EVT has reached 40%, few studies have focused on predicting mortality in these individuals. Thus, we aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based mortality prediction tool based on preoperative information for ABAO patients receiving EVT.

Methods: The derivation cohort comprised patients from southern provinces of China in the BASILAR registry. The model (POSITIVE: Predicting mOrtality of baSilar artery occlusion patIents Treated wIth EVT) was trained and optimized using a fivefold cross-validation method in which hyperparameters were selected and fine-tuned. This model was retrospectively tested in patients from the northern provinces of China from the BASILAR registry. A prospective test of POSITIVE was performed on consecutive patients from two hospitals between January 2020 and June 2022.

Results: Extreme gradient boosting was employed to construct the POSITIVE model, which achieved the best predictive performance among the eight machine learning algorithms and showed excellent discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.80 to 0.87) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P>0.05) in the development cohort. AUC yielded by the POSITIVE model for the retrospective test was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.85), higher than that obtained by traditional models. Prospective comparisons showed that the POSITIVE model achieved the highest AUC (0.82, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.90) among all prediction models.

Conclusion: We developed a machine learning algorithm and retrospective and prospective testing with multicentric cohorts, which exhibited a solid predictive performance and may act as a convenient reference to guide decision-making for ABAO patients. The POSITIVE model is presented online for user-friendly access.