Brain Structure Measurements Predict Individualized Treatment Outcome of 12-Week Antipsychotic Monotherapies in First-episode Schizophrenia

Background and hypothesis: Early prediction of treatment response to antipsychotics in schizophrenia remains a challenge in clinical practice. This study aimed to investigate if brain morphometries including gray matter volume and cortical thickness could serve as potential predictive biomarkers in first-episode schizophrenia.

Study design: Sixty-eight drug-naïve first-episode patients underwent baseline structural MRI scans and were subsequently randomized to receive a single antipsychotic throughout the first 12 weeks. Assessments for symptoms and social functioning were conducted by eight "core symptoms" selected from the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS-8) and the Personal and Social performance scale (PSP) multiple times during follow-ups. Treatment outcome was evaluated as subject-specific slope coefficients for PANSS-8 and PSP scores using linear mixed model. LASSO regression model were conducted to examine the performance of baseline gray matter volume and cortical thickness in prediction of individualized treatment outcome.

Study results: The study showed that individual brain morphometries at baseline, especially the orbitofrontal, temporal and parietal cortex, pallidum and amygdala, significantly predicted 12-week treatment outcome of PANSS-8 (r[predicted vs observed] = 0.49, P = .001) and PSP (r[predicted vs observed] = 0.40, P = .003) in first-episode schizophrenia. Moreover, the gray matter volume performed better than cortical thickness in the prediction the symptom changes (P = .034), while cortical thickness outperformed gray matter volume in the prediction of outcome of social functioning (P = .029).

Conclusions: These findings provide initial evidence that brain morphometry have potential to be used as prognostic predictors for antipsychotic response in patients, encouraging the future investigation of the translational value of these measures in precision psychiatry.