Prognostic Factors in Alcohol-associated Liver Disease Patients Presenting With First Evidence of Ascites

Goals: To identify factors associated with transplantation and death in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) patients presenting with first evidence of ascites.

Background: Ascites development is a poor prognostic sign for patients with cirrhosis. Among ALD patients, the baseline factors at time of ascites development that are associated with eventual transplantation or death are currently unknown.

Study: Adult patients with ascites in the "Evaluating Alcohol Use in Alcohol-related Liver Disease Prospective Cohort Study" (NCT03267069 clinicaltrials.gov) were identified from 2016 to 2020. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors at initial ascites presentation were identified as potential predictors of transplant and death as competing risks.

Results: A total of 96 patients were identified. Median (interquartile range) follow-up time was 2.00 years (0.87 to 3.85). By last follow-up, 34/96 patients had been transplanted (35.4%) and 11/96 had died (11.4%). Prognostic factors for transplant included age per decade [hazard ratio (HR): 0.52 (95% CI, 0.33 to 0.83)], employed status [HR: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.90)], and sodium [HR: 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90 to 0.99)], whereas prognostic factors for death were body mass index [HR: 1.11 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.22)], Charlson index [HR: 2.14 [95% CI, 1.13 to 4.08]), Maddrey Discriminant Function >32 (HR: 5.88 (95% CI, 1.18, 29.39)], aspartate aminotransferase [HR: 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98 to 0.997)], and a prior 12-month abstinence period [HR: 5.53 (95% CI, 1.10 to 27.83)], adjusted for age, sex, and ALD subcategory.

Conclusions: Several factors at initial ascites presentation are associated with increased risk of transplantation or death and validation in larger cohorts will allow for improved risk stratification for ALD patients.