Variability in excess deaths across countries with different vulnerability during 2020-2023

Excess deaths provide total impact estimates of major crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated excess death's trajectories during 2020-2023 across countries with accurate death registration and population age structure data; and assessed relationships with economic indicators of vulnerability. Using the Human Mortality Database on 34 countries, excess deaths were calculated for 2020-2023 (to week 29, 2023) using 2017-2019 as reference, with weekly expected death calculations and adjustment for 5 age strata. Countries were divided into less and more vulnerable; the latter had per capita nominal GDP<$30,000, Gini>0.35 for income inequality and/or at least 2.5% of their population living in poverty. Excess deaths (as proportion of expected deaths, p%) were inversely correlated with per capita GDP (r=-0.60), correlated with proportion living in poverty (r=0.66) and modestly correlated with income inequality (r=0.45). Incidence rate ratio for deaths was 1.06 (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.08) in the more versus less vulnerable countries. Excess deaths started deviating in the two groups after the first wave. Between-country heterogeneity diminished over time within each of the two groups. Less vulnerable countries had mean p%=-0.8% and 0.4% in 0-64 and >65 year-old strata while more vulnerable countries had mean p%=7.0% and 7.2%, respectively. Usually lower death rates were seen in children 0-14 years old during 2020-2023 versus pre-pandemic years. While the pandemic hit some countries earlier than others, country vulnerability dominated eventually the cumulative impact. Half of the analyzed countries witnessed no substantial excess deaths versus pre-pandemic levels, while the other half suffered major death tolls.