Examining a Hypothesized Causal Chain for the Effects of the 2007 Repeal of the Permit-to-Purchase Licensing Law in Missouri: Homicide Guns Recovered in State and within a Year of Purchase

Firearm-related deaths are a leading cause of death in the USA. Webster et al. (2014) found an association between Missouri's repeal of a permit-to-purchase handgun licensing law and an increase in firearm-related homicides. The evidence for causality of this association would be strengthened by finding that the increase occurred through the hypothesized mechanism of increasing the ease with which those with violent intent could obtain guns. This study examines two measures: (1) proportion of guns recovered and purchased in-state and (2) time between firearm purchase and recovery by police following criminal use. The repeal was associated from 2008 to 2019 with a 0.05 increase in the proportion own-state gun trace (p < 0.0001, 95% confidence interval: 0.08,0.13) and a 0.10 increase in the proportion of guns recovered prior to 1 year after purchase (p = 0.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.20, 1.90). Our study provides supportive evidence for the repeal increasing firearm-related homicides.