Updated estimation of cutaneous leishmaniasis incubation period in French Guiana

Background: The cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) incubation period (IP) is defined as the time between parasite inoculation by sandfly bite and the onset of the first CL lesion. IP distribution is difficult to assess for CL because the date of exposure to an infectious bite cannot be accurately determined in endemic areas. IP current estimates for CL range from 14 days to several months with a median around 30-60 days, as established by a few previous studies in both New and Old Worlds.

Methodology: We estimated CL incubation period distribution using time-to-event models adapted to interval-censored data based on declared date of travels from symptomatic military personnel living in non-endemic areas that were exposed during their short stays in French Guiana (FG) between January 2001 and December 2021.

Principal findings: A total of 180 patients were included, of which 176 were men (97.8%), with a median age of 26 years. When recorded, the parasite species was always Leishmania guyanensis (31/180, 17.2%). The main periods of CL diagnosis spread from November to January (84/180, 46.7%) and over March-April (54/180, 30.0%). The median IP was estimated at 26.2 days (95% Credible Level, 23.8-28.7 days) using a Bayesian accelerated failure-time regression model. Estimated IP did not exceed 62.1 days (95% CI, 56-69.8 days) in 95% of cases (95th percentile). Age, gender, lesion number, lesion evolution and infection date did not significantly modify the IP. However, disseminated CL was significantly associated with a 2.8-fold shortening of IP.

Conclusions: This work suggests that the CL IP distribution in French Guiana is shorter and more restricted than anticipated. As the incidence of CL in FG usually peaks in January and March, these findings suggest that patients are contaminated at the start of the rainy season.