A survival analysis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the context of antifibrotic therapy in Saudi Arabia

Background: The prognosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) can be predicted by the gender, age, and physiology (GAP) index. However, antifibrotic therapy (i.e., nintedanib and pirfenidone) may improve survival.

Aims: This study aimed to compare the outcomes of antifibrotic-treated IPF with the survival predicted by the GAP index.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted from March 2014 to January 2020. The electronic health-care records of all IPF patients treated with nintedanib or pirfenidone were reviewed. Besides standard demographic and mortality data, the variables required to calculate the GAP index were also extracted.

Results: Eighty-one patients (male 55, 68%; age 71.4 ± 10.2 years) with IPF received antifibrotic therapy (nintedanib 44.4%; pirfenidone 55.6%; mean follow-up 35 ± 16.5 months). Cumulative mortality (whole cohort 3 years 12%; 4 years 26%; 5 years 33%) was significantly less than predicted by the GAP index.

Conclusions: The survival of antifibrotic-treated IPF is better than predicted by the GAP index. Novel systems for prognostication are required. The survival benefit from pirfenidone and nintedanib seem similar overall.