Normal tissue complication probability of acute eyelids erythema following radiotherapy of head and neck cancers and skull-base tumors

Purpose: Radiation therapy is broadly used as one of the main treatment methods for patients with head and neck cancers and skull base tumors. However, it can lead to normal tissue complications. Therefore, this study aimed to model normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) of eyelid skin erythema after radiation therapy.

Methods: The dataset of 45 patients with head and neck and skull base tumors was prospectively collected from their dose-volume histograms (DVHs). Grade 1 + eyelid skin erythema based on the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE 4.0) was evaluated as the endpoint after a three-month follow-up. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) radiobiological model was developed based on generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD). Model parameters were calculated by maximum likelihood estimation. Model performance was evaluated by ROC-AUC, Brier score and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results: After three months of follow-up, 13.33% of patients experienced eyelids skin erythema grade 1 or more. The parameters of the LKB model were: TD₅₀ = 30 Gy, m = 0.14, and n = 0.10. The model showed good predictive performance with ROC-AUC = 0.80 (CI:0.66-0.94) and a Brier score of 0.20.

Conclusions: In this study, NTCP of eyelid skin erythema was modeled based on the LKB radiobiological model with good predictive performance.