Performances and variability of CT radiomics for the prediction of microvascular invasion and survival in patients with HCC: a matter of chance or standardisation?

Objectives: To measure the performance and variability of a radiomics-based model for the prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) and survival in patients with resected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), simulating its sequential development and application.

Methods: This study included 230 patients with 242 surgically resected HCCs who underwent preoperative CT, of which 73/230 (31.7%) were scanned in external centres. The study cohort was split into training set (158 patients, 165 HCCs) and held-out test set (72 patients, 77 HCCs), stratified by random partitioning, which was repeated 100 times, and by a temporal partitioning to simulate the sequential development and clinical use of the radiomics model. A machine learning model for the prediction of MVI was developed with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the value to predict the recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survivals (OS).

Results: In the 100-repetition random partitioning cohorts, the radiomics model demonstrated a mean AUC of 0.54 (range 0.44-0.68) for the prediction of MVI, mean C-index of 0.59 (range 0.44-0.73) for RFS, and 0.65 (range 0.46-0.86) for OS in the held-out test set. In the temporal partitioning cohort, the radiomics model yielded an AUC of 0.50 for the prediction of MVI, a C-index of 0.61 for RFS, and 0.61 for OS, in the held-out test set.

Conclusions: The radiomics models had a poor performance for the prediction of MVI with a large variability in the model performance depending on the random partitioning. Radiomics models demonstrated good performance in the prediction of patient outcomes.

Clinical relevance statement: Patient selection within the training set strongly influenced the performance of the radiomics models for predicting microvascular invasion; therefore, a random approach to partitioning a retrospective cohort into a training set and a held-out set seems inappropriate.

Key points: • The performance of the radiomics models for the prediction of microvascular invasion and survival widely ranged (AUC range 0.44-0.68) in the randomly partitioned cohorts. • The radiomics model for the prediction of microvascular invasion was unsatisfying when trying to simulate its sequential development and clinical use in a temporal partitioned cohort imaged with a variety of CT scanners. • The performance of the radiomics models for the prediction of survival was good with similar performances in the 100-repetition random partitioning and temporal partitioning cohorts.