Out to sea: ocean currents and patterns of asymmetric gene flow in an intertidal fish species

Passive dispersal via wind or ocean currents can drive asymmetric gene flow, which influences patterns of genetic variation and the capacity of populations to evolve in response to environmental change. The mangrove rivulus fish (Kryptolebias marmoratus), hereafter "rivulus," is an intertidal fish species restricted to the highly fragmented New World mangrove forests of Central America, the Caribbean, the Bahamas, and Florida. Mangrove patches are biological islands with dramatic differences in both abiotic and biotic conditions compared to adjacent habitat. Over 1,000 individual rivulus across 17 populations throughout its range were genotyped at 32 highly polymorphic microsatellites. Range-wide population genetic structure was evaluated with five complementary approaches that found eight distinct population clusters. However, an analysis of molecular variance indicated significant population genetic structure among regions, populations within regions, sampling locations within populations, and individuals within sampling locations, indicating that rivulus has both broad- and fine-scale genetic differentiation. Integrating range-wide genetic data with biophysical modeling based on 10 years of ocean current data showed that ocean currents and the distance between populations over water drive gene flow patterns on broad scales. Directional migration estimates suggested some significant asymmetries in gene flow that also were mediated by ocean currents and distance. Specifically, populations in the center of the range (Florida Keys) were identified as sinks that received migrants (and alleles) from other populations but failed to export individuals. These populations thus harbor genetic variation, perhaps even from extirpated populations across the range, but ocean currents and complex arrangements of landmasses might prevent the distribution of that genetic variation elsewhere. Hence, the inherent asymmetry of ocean currents shown to impact both genetic differentiation and directional migration rates may be responsible for the complex distribution of genetic variation across the range and observed patterns of metapopulation structure.