Global impacts of recent Southern Ocean cooling

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Jul 25;120(30):e2300881120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2300881120. Epub 2023 Jul 17.

Abstract

Since the beginning of the satellite era, Southern Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have cooled, despite global warming. While observed Southern Ocean cooling has previously been reported to have minimal impact on the tropical Pacific, the efficiency of this teleconnection has recently shown to be mediated by subtropical cloud feedbacks that are highly model-dependent. Here, we conduct a coupled model intercomparison of paired ensemble simulations under historical radiative forcing: one with freely evolving SSTs and the other with Southern Ocean SST anomalies constrained to follow observations. We reveal a global impact of observed Southern Ocean cooling in the model with stronger (and more realistic) cloud feedbacks, including Antarctic sea-ice expansion, southeastern tropical Pacific cooling, northward-shifted Hadley circulation, Aleutian low weakening, and North Pacific warming. Our results therefore suggest that observed Southern Ocean SST decrease might have contributed to cooler conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific in recent decades.

Keywords: Southern Ocean cooling; global teleconnection; subtropical cloud feedback; tropical Pacific cooling.