Clinical features and prognostic risk prediction of adult hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: a 9-year retrospective study

Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) has a low incidence and high mortality. In order to improve our understanding of the clinical features and prognostic risk factors of adult HLH, we analyzed the clinical characteristics and prognostic risk factors of adult HLH and developed a prognostic model to predict the overall survival (OS) of adult HLH. The clinical characteristics and survival statistics of adult patients with HLH identified at The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between February 2012 and October 2020 were retrospectively analyzed to constitute the primary cohort, while patients between 25 October 2020 and 20 March 2023 were collected at the same institution as a validation cohort for the prospective study. A total of 142 patients met the inclusion criteria, with 72 and 70 in the primary cohort and validation cohort respectively. In the primary cohort, the median OS was 102 days, with 37.5%, 34.5%, and 28.7% 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that age, interleukin-10 (IL-10), interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R), prothrombin time (PT), and indirect bilirubin (IBiL) were correlated with prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that IL-10 and PT were independent factors affecting OS in adult patients with HLH. A prognostic model consisting of IL-2R, PT, and IL-10 and a corresponding prognostic nomogram were developed adopting the principle of minimum value of Akaike information criterion(AIC). The model has a high prediction accuracy letter (C-index = 0.708). The AUC values of 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year were 0.826, 0.865, and 0.882, correspondingly. In the validation cohort, all patients were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups, and the risk of death was significantly higher in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group (p < 0.01). The calibration curve for the model shows that the Nomogram constructed in this study is very reliable to predict the OS of HLH patients. IL-10 and PT have significant prognostic value in adult HLH. The prognostic model and the nomogram built in this study can forecast the OS of adult HLH patients.