Temperature-dependent development of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) at constant temperatures: instar pathways and stage transition models with semifield validation

Temperature-dependent development of Helicoverpa armigera (Hüber) fed with an artificial diet was studied at different temperatures. The instar pathway (IPW) defined as the number of instars prior to pupation significantly affected larval development time, with higher IPW leading to longer larval development time. The IPW was determined at the fifth instar to proceed to 6-7 IPW, when the development time of fifth instar was largely shortened. Accordingly, the development time after the fourth instar was combined (i.e., the fifth-seventh instar) as a single stage to simplify the various IPW and applied to develop phenology models. In linear models, the lower threshold temperature (LT) and thermal constant (degree-days, DD) for each stage were estimated. DD based on the common LT of 10.7 °C were 43, 287, and 191 DD for eggs, larvae, and pupae, respectively. DD model (253.6 DD with LT 10.3 °C for larvae and 181.5 DD with 11.6 °C for pupae) showed good performance in predicting the 50% occurrences of pupae and adults. In nonlinear models, stage transition (ST) models were constructed using the development rate and distribution models to simulate the proportion of individuals shifted from one stage to the next stage. The ST model showed good performance, indicating an average discrepancy of 1.74 days at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% adult emergence. Our models developed here will be useful to predict the phenology of H. armigera in the field and to construct a deterministic population model in the future.