Which programmes and policies across health and community settings will generate the most significant impacts for youth suicide prevention in Australia and the UK? Protocol for a systems modelling and simulation study

Introduction: Suicide is a leading cause of mortality among young people aged 15-24 globally. Despite the deployment of comprehensive suicide prevention strategies, we still do not know which interventions, for which groups of young people, for how long and with what intensity could generate the most significant reductions in suicide rates. System dynamics modelling has the potential to address these gaps. SEYMOUR (System Dynamics Modelling for Suicide Prevention) will develop and evaluate a system dynamics model that will indicate which suicide prevention interventions could generate the most significant reductions in rates of suicide and attempted suicide among young people aged 12-25 in Australia and the UK.

Methods and analysis: A comparative case study design, applying participatory system dynamics modelling in North-West Melbourne (Australia) and Birmingham (UK). A computer simulation model of mental health service pathways and suicidal behaviour among young people in North-West Melbourne will be developed through three workshops with expert stakeholder groups (young people with lived experience, carers, clinicians, policy makers, commissioners). The model will be calibrated and validated using national, state and local datasets (inputs). The simulation model will test a series of interventions identified in the workshops for inclusion. Primary model outputs include suicide deaths, self-harm hospitalisations and self-harm presentations to emergency departments. An implementation strategy for the sustainable embedding of promising suicide prevention interventions will be developed. This will be followed by model customisation, re-parameterisation, and validation in Birmingham and adaptation of the implementation strategy.

Ethics and dissemination: The project has received approval from the University of Melbourne Human Research Ethics Committee (2022-22885-25971-4), the University of Birmingham Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Ethics Review Committee (ERN_21-02385) and the UK HRA (22/HRA/3826). SEYMOUR's dissemination strategy includes open-access academic publications, conference presentations, accessible findings coproduced with young people, e-briefs to policy makers, webinars for service providers and commissioners.