Optimal computed tomography-based biomarkers for prediction of incisional hernia formation

Purpose: Unstructured data are an untapped source for surgical prediction. Modern image analysis and machine learning (ML) can harness unstructured data in medical imaging. Incisional hernia (IH) is a pervasive surgical disease, well-suited for prediction using image analysis. Our objective was to identify optimal biomarkers (OBMs) from preoperative abdominopelvic computed tomography (CT) imaging which are most predictive of IH development.

Methods: Two hundred and twelve rigorously matched colorectal surgery patients at our institution were included. Preoperative abdominopelvic CT scans were segmented to derive linear, volumetric, intensity-based, and textural features. These features were analyzed to find a small subset of OBMs, which are maximally predictive of IH. Three ML classifiers (Ensemble Boosting, Random Forest, SVM) trained on these OBMs were used for prediction of IH.

Results: Altogether, 279 features were extracted from each CT scan. The most predictive OBMs found were: (1) abdominopelvic visceral adipose tissue (VAT) volume, normalized for height; (2) abdominopelvic skeletal muscle tissue volume, normalized for height; and (3) pelvic VAT volume to pelvic outer aspect of body wall skeletal musculature (OAM) volume ratio. Among ML prediction models, Ensemble Boosting produced the best performance with an AUC of 0.85, accuracy of 0.83, sensitivity of 0.86, and specificity of 0.81.

Conclusion: These OBMs suggest increased intra-abdominopelvic volume/pressure as the salient pathophysiologic driver and likely mechanism for IH formation. ML models using these OBMs are highly predictive for IH development. The next generation of surgical prediction will maximize the utility of unstructured data using advanced image analysis and ML.