[Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Agro-pastoral Ecotone]

Land use and climate change are the most important factors driving the change in ecosystem services (ESs). It is critical to understand the mechanisms behind such changes for improving ESs. However, there is still a lack of accurate understanding of change and dominant influencing factors of ESs in the agro-pastoral ecotone. This study took Naiman Banner, a typical farming pastoral ecotone in China, as the case study area. Based on the InVEST model, the revised wind erosion equation (RWEQ) and the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE) were used to calculate water yield, soil retention, and windbreak and sand-fixing in Naiman Banner in 2005 and 2015. Finally, the impacts of land use and climate change on these three ecosystem services were analyzed by using contribution rate formula, Pearson correlation coefficient, and geodetector methods. The results indicate that:① from 2005 to 2015, water yield and soil retention in Naiman Banner showed an overall upward trend, increasing by 22.41% and 6.74%, respectively, and windbreak and sand-fixing decreased by 66.24%. ② The change in water yield and windbreak and sand-fixing was mainly affected by climate change, and the change in soil retention was mainly affected by land use change. ③ Actual evapotranspiration change and land use change were the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of water yield, with the explanatory powers of 94.50% and 50.05%, respectively. The main factors influencing the spatial differentiation of windbreak and sand-fixing were actual evapotranspiration change and land desertification degree, with the explanatory power of 19.84% and 16.15%, respectively. ④ The correlation of ESs in Naiman Banner was weak, and only windbreak and sand-fixing and water yield showed a weak significant synergy. Based on the results, we recommend that managers increase the proportion of grassland in sandy areas, implement closed management in pastoral areas, and introduce drip irrigation and other water-saving technologies in farmland, and ecological protection should continue to be given priority in city.