Development and validation of the CAIL prognostic score in non-small cell lung cancer patients with malignant pleural effusion

Background: Patients with malignant pleural effusion (MPE) typically have poor prognoses, and predicting survival is challenging. The present study aimed to identify prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with MPE in the time of immunotherapy and targeted therapy.

Methods: Data of 344 consecutive NSCLC patients with MPE on clinical, radiological, and molecular characteristics and treatment options were collected. The risk factors in the training cohort were assessed using univariate and multivariate proportional hazards analyses. A clinical prognostic score was established and validated.

Results: According to the results of the multivariable survival analysis, the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score (PS), antiangiogenic therapy, immunotherapy, and lactic dehydrogenase (LDH) in pleural fluid (CAIL) prognostic score was developed (n = 275) and subsequently validated (n = 69). Patients who underwent risk stratification into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had median OS of 46.1, 23.1, and 9.6 months, respectively (P < 0.0001). The area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed the CAIL score to be superior at predicting survival compared with the LENT score at 6 (0.84 vs. 0.77, P < 0.01), 12 (0.87 vs. 0.82, P < 0.01), and 36 months (0.80 vs. 0.77, P < 0.01).

Conclusions: For NSCLC patients with MPE, the validated CAIL prognostic score integrates clinical characteristics and therapeutic modalities to predict survival.