Multiparametric machine learning algorithm for human papillomavirus status and survival prediction in oropharyngeal cancer patients

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) status influences prognosis in oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Identifying high-risk patients are critical to improving treatment. We aim to provide a noninvasive opportunity for managing OPC patients by training multiple machine learning pipelines to determine the best model for characterizing HPV status and survival.

Methods: Multi-parametric algorithms were designed using a 492 OPC patient database. HPV status incorporated age, sex, smoking/drinking habits, cancer subsite, TNM, and AJCC 7th edition staging. Survival considered HPV model inputs plus HPV status. Patients were split 4:1 training: testing. Algorithm efficacy was assessed through accuracy and area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: From 31 HPV status models, ensemble yielded 0.83 AUC and 78.7% accuracy. From 38 survival models, ensemble yielded 0.91 AUC and 87.7% accuracy.

Conclusion: Results reinforce artificial intelligence's potential to use tumor imaging and patient characterizations for HPV status and outcome prediction. Utilizing these algorithms can optimize clinical guidance and patient care noninvasively.