Charting Aging Trajectories of Knee Cartilage Thickness for Early Osteoarthritis Risk Prediction: An MRI Study from the Osteoarthritis Initiative Cohort

Knee osteoarthritis (OA), a prevalent joint disease in the U.S., poses challenges in terms of predicting of its early progression. Although high-resolution knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) facilitates more precise OA diagnosis, the heterogeneous and multifactorial aspects of OA pathology remain significant obstacles for prognosis. MRI-based scoring systems, while standardizing OA assessment, are both time-consuming and labor-intensive. Current AI technologies facilitate knee OA risk scoring and progression prediction, but these often focus on the symptomatic phase of OA, bypassing initial-stage OA prediction. Moreover, their reliance on complex algorithms can hinder clinical interpretation. To this end, we make this effort to construct a computationally efficient, easily-interpretable, and state-of-the-art approach aiding in the radiographic OA (rOA) auto-classification and prediction of the incidence and progression, by contrasting an individual's cartilage thickness with a similar demographic in the rOA-free cohort. To better visualize, we have developed the toolset for both prediction and local visualization. A movie demonstrating different subtypes of dynamic changes in local centile scores during rOA progression is available at https://tli3.github.io/KneeOA/. Specifically, we constructed age-BMI-dependent reference charts for knee OA cartilage thickness, based on MRI scans from 957 radiographic OA (rOA)-free individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort. Then we extracted local and global centiles by contrasting an individual's cartilage thickness to the rOA-free cohort with a similar age and BMI. Using traditional boosting approaches with our centile-based features, we obtain rOA classification of KLG ≤ 1 versus KLG = 2 (AUC = 0.95, F1 = 0.89), KLG ≤ 1 versus KLG ≥ 2 (AUC = 0.90, F1 = 0.82) and prediction of KLG2 progression (AUC = 0.98, F1 = 0.94), rOA incidence (KLG increasing from < 2 to ≥ 2; AUC = 0.81, F1 = 0.69) and rOA initial transition (KLG from 0 to 1; AUC = 0.64, F1 = 0.65) within a future 48-month period. Such performance in classifying KLG ≥ 2 matches that of deep learning methods in recent literature. Furthermore, its clinical interpretation suggests that cartilage changes, such as thickening in lateral femoral and anterior femoral regions and thinning in lateral tibial regions, may serve as indicators for prediction of rOA incidence and early progression. Meanwhile, cartilage thickening in the posterior medial and posterior lateral femoral regions, coupled with a reduction in the central medial femoral region, may signify initial phases of rOA transition.