No association between metformin initiation and incident dementia in older adults newly diagnosed with diabetes

Background: Metformin has been suggested to reduce dementia risk; however, most epidemiologic studies have been limited by immortal time bias or confounding due to disease severity.

Objectives: To investigate the association of metformin initiation with incident dementia using strategies that mitigate these important sources of bias.

Methods: Residents of Ontario, Canada ≥66 years newly diagnosed with diabetes from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2017 entered this retrospective population-based cohort. To consider the indication for metformin monotherapy initiation, people with hemoglobin A1c of 6.5%-8.0% and estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥45 mL/min/1.73 m² were selected. Using the landmark method to address immortal time bias, exposure was grouped into "metformin monotherapy initiation within 180 days after new diabetes diagnosis" or "no glucose-lowering medications within 180 days." To address disease latency, 1-year lag time was applied to the end of the 180-day landmark period. Incident dementia was defined using a validated algorithm for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated from propensity-score weighted Cox proportional hazard models.

Results: Over mean follow-up of 6.77 years from cohort entry, metformin initiation within 180 days after new diabetes diagnosis (N = 12,331; 978 events; 65,762 person-years) showed no association with dementia risk (aHR [95% CI] = 1.05 [0.96-1.15]), compared to delayed or no glucose-lowering medication initiation (N = 22,369; 1768 events; 117,415 person-years).

Conclusion: Early metformin initiation was not associated with incident dementia in older adults newly diagnosed with diabetes. The utility of metformin to prevent dementia was not supported.