Assessment of risk factors for acute graft- versus-host disease post-hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: a retrospective study based on a proportional odds model using a nonlinear mixed-effects model

Background: Acute graft-versus-host disease (aGVHD) is a major complication following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT).

Objective: This study aimed to explore the risk factors for the incidence of aGVHD in patients post-HSCT.

Design: This was a retrospective study.

Methods: A total of 407 patients were enrolled. The patients' data were recorded from the medical records. The exposure of cyclosporine was estimated based on a population pharmacokinetics model. The occurrence of aGVHD was clinically graded and staged in severity from grades I to IV. A proportional odds model that estimated the cumulative probabilities of aGVHD was used to analyze the data using a nonlinear mixed-effects model. Then, the model parameters and plausibility were evaluated by bootstrap and visual predictive checks.

Results: The typical probabilities were 18.9% and 17.9% for grade II and grades III-IV, respectively. The incidence of grade II and grade III-IV aGVHD for human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplo sibling donor patients was higher than that for HLA-matched donor patients. The incidence of grade II and grade III-IV aGVHD decreased with increasing early cyclosporine trough concentration; however, cyclosporine exposure was not associated with the incidence of aGVHD.

Conclusion: HLA matching and early cyclosporine trough concentration were important factors for the occurrence of aGVHD.