Development of predictive models for lymphedema by using blood tests and therapy data

Lymphedema is a disease that refers to tissue swelling caused by an accumulation of protein-rich fluid that is usually drained through the lymphatic system. Detection of lymphedema is often based on expensive diagnoses such as bioimpedance spectroscopy, shear wave elastography, computed tomography, etc. In current machine learning models for lymphedema prediction, reliance on observable symptoms reported by patients introduces the possibility of errors in patient-input data. Moreover, these symptoms are often absent during the initial stages of lymphedema, creating challenges in its early detection. Identifying lymphedema before these observable symptoms manifest would greatly benefit patients by potentially minimizing the discomfort caused by these symptoms. In this study, we propose to use new data, such as complete blood count, serum, and therapy data, to develop predictive models for lymphedema. This approach aims to compensate for the limitations of using only observable symptoms data. We collected data from 2137 patients, including 356 patients with lymphedema and 1781 patients without lymphedema, with the lymphedema status of each patient confirmed by clinicians. The data for each patient included: (1) a complete blood count (CBC) test, (2) a serum test, and (3) therapy information. We used various machine learning algorithms (i.e. random forest, gradient boosting, decision tree, logistic regression, and artificial neural network) to develop predictive models on the training dataset (i.e. 80% of the data) and evaluated the models on the external validation dataset (i.e. 20% of the data). After selecting the best predictive models, we created a web application to aid medical doctors and clinicians in the rapid screening of lymphedema patients. A dataset of 2137 patients was assembled from Seoul National University Bundang Hospital. Predictive models based on the random forest algorithm exhibited satisfactory performance (balanced accuracy = 87.0 ± 0.7%, sensitivity = 84.3 ± 0.6%, specificity = 89.1 ± 1.5%, precision = 97.4 ± 0.7%, F1 score = 90.4 ± 0.4%, and AUC = 0.931 ± 0.007). We developed a web application to facilitate the swift screening of lymphedema among medical practitioners: https://snubhtxt.shinyapps.io/SNUBH_Lymphedema . Our study introduces a novel tool for the early detection of lymphedema and establishes the foundation for future investigations into predicting different stages of the condition.