A long-standing goal of neuroscience is to obtain a causal model of the nervous system. This would allow neuroscientists to explain animal behavior in terms of the dynamic interactions between neurons. The recently reported whole-brain fly connectome [1-7] specifies the synaptic paths by which neurons can affect each other but not whether, or how, they do affect each other in vivo. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel combined experimental and statistical strategy for efficiently learning a causal model of the fly brain, which we refer to as the "effectome". Specifically, we propose an estimator for a dynamical systems model of the fly brain that uses stochastic optogenetic perturbation data to accurately estimate causal effects and the connectome as a prior to drastically improve estimation efficiency. We then analyze the connectome to propose circuits that have the greatest total effect on the dynamics of the fly nervous system. We discover that, fortunately, the dominant circuits significantly involve only relatively small populations of neurons-thus imaging, stimulation, and neuronal identification are feasible. Intriguingly, we find that this approach also re-discovers known circuits and generates testable hypotheses about their dynamics. Overall, our analyses of the connectome provide evidence that global dynamics of the fly brain are generated by a large collection of small and often anatomically localized circuits operating, largely, independently of each other. This in turn implies that a causal model of a brain, a principal goal of systems neuroscience, can be feasibly obtained in the fly.
Keywords: causal inference; connectome; fly.