Machine learning prediction of hospital discharge disposition for inpatients with acute ischemic stroke following mechanical thrombectomy in the United States

Background and purpose: Predicting patient recovery and discharge disposition following mechanical thrombectomy remains a challenge in patients with ischemic stroke. Machine learning offers a promising prognostication approach assisting in personalized post-thrombectomy care plans and resource allocation. As a large national database, National Inpatient Sample (NIS), contain valuable insights amenable to data-mining. The study aimed to develop and evaluate ML models predicting hospital discharge disposition with a focus on demographic, socioeconomic and hospital characteristics.

Materials and methods: The NIS dataset (2006-2019) was used, including 4956 patients diagnosed with ischemic stroke who underwent thrombectomy. Demographics, hospital characteristics, and Elixhauser comorbidity indices were recorded. Feature extraction, processing, and selection were performed using Python, with Maximum Relevance - Minimum Redundancy (MRMR) applied for dimensionality reduction. ML models were developed and benchmarked prior to interpretation of the best model using Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP).

Results: The multilayer perceptron model outperformed others and achieved an AUROC of 0.81, accuracy of 77 %, F1-score of 0.48, precision of 0.64, and recall of 0.54. SHAP analysis identified the most important features for predicting discharge disposition as dysphagia and dysarthria, NIHSS, age, primary payer (Medicare), cerebral edema, fluid and electrolyte disorders, complicated hypertension, primary payer (private insurance), intracranial hemorrhage, and thrombectomy alone.

Conclusion: Machine learning modeling of NIS database shows potential in predicting hospital discharge disposition for inpatients with acute ischemic stroke following mechanical thrombectomy in the NIS database. Insights gained from SHAP interpretation can inform targeted interventions and care plans, ultimately enhancing patient outcomes and resource allocation.