Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau

Jing Xu; Ping Zhao; Johnny C L Chan; Mingyuan Shi; Chi Yang; Siyu Zhao; Ying Xu; Junming Chen; Ling Du; Jie Wu; Jiaxin Ye; Rui Xing; Huimei Wang; Lu Liu

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-44403-8

Increasing tropical cyclone intensity in the western North Pacific partly driven by warming Tibetan Plateau

Nat Commun. 2024 Jan 5;15(1):310. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-44403-8.

Authors

Jing Xu¹, Ping Zhao^{2

3}, Johnny C L Chan^{4

5}, Mingyuan Shi⁶, Chi Yang⁷, Siyu Zhao⁸, Ying Xu⁹, Junming Chen¹, Ling Du¹⁰, Jie Wu¹¹, Jiaxin Ye¹, Rui Xing¹², Huimei Wang¹, Lu Liu¹

Affiliations

¹ Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
² Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China. [email protected].
³ Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, College of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610225, China. [email protected].
⁴ Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
⁵ Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center, Shanghai, 201306, China.
⁶ National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing, 100081, China.
⁷ Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China.
⁸ Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
⁹ National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China.
¹⁰ Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory; and College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China.
¹¹ Gannan Normal University, Ganzhou, 341000, China.
¹² Meteorological Service in Binhai New Area, Tianjin, 300457, China.

Abstract

The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity across the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been attributed to a warming ocean. However, it is essential to recognize that the tropical WNP region already boasts high temperatures, and a marginal increase in oceanic warmth due to global warming does not exert a significant impact on the potential for TCs to intensify. Here we report that the weakened vertical wind shear is the primary driver behind the escalating trend in TC intensity within the summer monsoon trough of the tropical WNP, while local ocean surface and subsurface thermodynamic factors play a minor role. Through observational diagnoses and numerical simulations, we establish that this weakening of the vertical wind shear is very likely due to the increase in temperature of the Tibetan Plateau. With further warming of the Tibetan Plateau under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, the projected TCs will likely become stronger.