Preoperative predictors of successful tumour localization by intraoperative molecular imaging with pafolacianine in lung cancer to create predictive nomogram

Objectives: Intraoperative molecular imaging (IMI) uses cancer-targeted fluorescent probe to locate nodules. Pafolacianine is a Food and Drug Administration-approved fluorescent probe for lung cancer. However, it has a 8-12% false negative rate for localization. Our goal is to define preoperative predictors of tumour localization by IMI.

Methods: We performed a retrospective review of patients who underwent IMI using pafolacianine for lung lesions from June 2015 to August 2019. Candidate predictors including sex, age, body mass index, smoking history, tumour size, distance of tumour from surface, use of neoadjuvant therapy and positron emission tomography avidity were included. The outcome was fluorescence in vivo and comprehensively included those who were true or false positives negatives. Multiple imputation was used to handle the missing data. The final model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results: Three hundred nine patients were included in our study. The mean age was 64 (standard deviation 13) and 68% had a smoking history. The mean distance of the tumours from the pleural surface was 0.4 cm (standard deviation 0.6). Smoking in pack-years and distance from pleura had an odds ratio of 0.99 [95% confidence interval: 0.98-0.99; P = 0.03] and 0.46 [95% confidence interval: 0.27-0.78; P = 0.004], respectively. The final model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.68 and was used to create a nomogram that gives a probability of fluorescence in vivo.

Conclusions: Primary tumours that are deeper from the pleural surface, especially in patients with a higher pack-years, are associated with a decreased likelihood of intraoperative localization. We identified a nomogram to predict the likelihood of tumour localization with IMI with pafolacianine.