Spatial congruency or discrepancy? Exploring the spatiotemporal dynamics of built-up expansion patterns and flood risk

Most coastal cities have been experiencing unprecedented urbanization-induced flood risk, climatic events, and haphazard anthropogenic activities, jeopardizing residents' lives and building environments. Despite mounting flood-related studies, analyzing the correlation between the spatiotemporal dynamics of Built-up Expansion patterns (BE) and flood risk remains unknown and holds divergent perspectives. In this context, the coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, characterized by multiple urban patterns and experiencing heavy rainfall annually, was selected as a testbed. Our method defined the spatiotemporal rates of BE from 1995 to 2023, quantified flood risk spatially, and finally investigated the correlation between BE and flood risk through spatial and statistical analysis. Our results show the built-up area occupied 30.32 % of the total city area till 2023, and the infilling pattern dominated the BE growth by 45.21 % of the total built-up area, followed by leapfrogging and edge expansion by 33.25 % and 21.55 %, respectively. The unplanned-infilling pattern is predominantly highly correlated with the flood-vulnerable peaks (correlation coefficient (r_k) = 0.975, p-value < 0.05) and lowers dramatically towards planned-infilling regions with flood protections. Meanwhile, a spatial mismatch exists between high-risk peaks and leapfrogging and edge expansion (r_k = 0.118 and 0.662, respectively, with a p-value < 0.01), indicating that controlling the built-up amount is inadequate for mitigating flood risk. Porosity-based urban configuration and spatial distribution of built-up patches in harmony with nature-based solutions are recommended for shaping flood-resilient and effective urban planning.